by James Kuria Kimotho, Walter Sextro
Abstract:
This paper presents a comparison of a number of prognostic methods with regard to algorithm complexity and performance based on prognostic metrics. This information serves as a guide for selection and design of prognostic systems for real-time condition monitoring of technical systems. The methods are evaluated on ability to estimate the remaining useful life of rolling element bearing. Run-to failure vibration and temperature data is used in the analysis. The sampled prognostic methods include wear-temperature correlation method, health state estimation using temperature measurement, a multi-model particle filter approach with model parameter adaptation utilizing temperature measurements, prognostics through health state estimation and mapping extracted features to the remaining useful life through regression approach. Although the performance of the methods utilizing the vibration measurements is much better than the methods using temperature measurements, the methods using temperature measurements are quite promising in terms of reducing the overall cost of the condition monitoring system as well as the computational time. An ensemble of the presented methods through weighted average is also introduced. The results show that the methods are able to estimate the remaining useful life within error bounds of +-15\%, which can be further reduced to +-5\% with the ensemble approach.
Reference:
Kimotho, J. K.; Sextro, W.: Comparison and ensemble of temperature-based and vibration-based methods for machinery prognostics. Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society 2015, volume 6, 2015.
Bibtex Entry:
@INPROCEEDINGS{Kimotho2015,
author = {Kimotho, James Kuria AND Sextro, Walter},
title = {Comparison and ensemble of temperature-based and vibration-based
methods for machinery prognostics},
booktitle = {Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society
2015},
year = {2015},
volume = {6},
abstract = {This paper presents a comparison of a number of prognostic methods
with regard to algorithm complexity and performance based on prognostic
metrics. This information serves as a guide for selection and design
of prognostic systems for real-time condition monitoring of technical
systems. The methods are evaluated on ability to estimate the remaining
useful life of rolling element bearing. Run-to failure vibration
and temperature data is used in the analysis. The sampled prognostic
methods include wear-temperature correlation method, health state
estimation using temperature measurement, a multi-model particle
filter approach with model parameter adaptation utilizing temperature
measurements, prognostics through health state estimation and mapping
extracted features to the remaining useful life through regression
approach. Although the performance of the methods utilizing the vibration
measurements is much better than the methods using temperature measurements,
the methods using temperature measurements are quite promising in
terms of reducing the overall cost of the condition monitoring system
as well as the computational time. An ensemble of the presented methods
through weighted average is also introduced. The results show that
the methods are able to estimate the remaining useful life within
error bounds of +-15\%, which can be further reduced to +-5\% with
the ensemble approach.},
bdsk-url-1 = {http://www.phmsociety.org/node/1781/},
file = {Kimotho2014.pdf:Kimotho2015.pdf:PDF},
keywords = {ensemble methods,combined prognostics,data fusion},
url = {https://www.phmsociety.org/node/1781}
}